Backstretch Motorsports

Jimmie Johnson would just about have to NOT be able to roll off the starting grid Sunday at Homestead to not win a third consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup title.

It’s simply his.. to lose

Here’s what he must do to clinch his third consecutive series title — finish 36th or better on Sunday. Additionally, Johnson can clinch by finishing 37th and leading at least one lap or 39th and leading the most laps.

Relax. Just race the track.

“I really think where we are in points is going to allow me to go to Homestead and take a little pressure off my brain this week,” Johnson said. “We can just go down and relax and get in the car and set it up, just do what we know how to do.”

Still, Edwards has some hope. His Roush Fenway Racing team has won the last four races at Homestead-Miami Speedway (and five of the last six there). Plus, the most points Edwards has gained on Johnson in one race is 127, at Homestead in 2005. In that race, Johnson finished 40th and Edwards finished fourth. If Edwards had won that race, he would have gained 147 points – six more than the deficit he now faces.

After a season’s worth of laps, it all comes down to a November afternoon at Homestead-Miami Speedway and this question: Can reigning and two-time defending NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Chevrolet) make history?

There’s always the possiblilty, in every aspect, that the equation’s strength could be utterly erraticated. An engine failure or accident. Anything could happen.

“It’s certainly not out of the realm of reality that (second-place) Carl (Edwards) could make a run or Jimmie could have some trouble.” said NASCAR CEO Brian France in teleconference yesterday. “But assuming that would happen, it would put in our view, Jimmie in an elite group, maybe in an elite group by himself. So we’ll see how that shakes out..”

But it’s not likely that trouble will befall Johnson, Chad Knaus and the Hendrick No. 48 operation. When it comes to Chase time, they shine.

Over the past nine Chase races, Johnson has three wins, six top fives, eight top 10s, an average finish of 4.7 and a Chase-high Driver Rating of 118.7.

Edwards has had an excellent Chase as well, winning two races and racking up seven top fives, an average finish of 8.8 and a Driver Rating of 113.2.

He’ll need a lot of help to catch Johnson, but there is some precedence at Homestead-Miami. Edwards gained 127 points on Johnson during the 2005 season finale there. He finished fourth while Johnson finished 40th. If Edwards had won that race, he would have gained 147 points — so what Edwards wants to factor in is a minus 40 so he can divide by 6. Possible.

“It’s possible, not real probable,” Edwards said, “but I guarantee that’s not going to change the way we do business. We’re going to go to Homestead with everything we’ve got. We’ll be aggressive and try to win the race.”

Hot Fact in Edward’s favor: Roush Fenway Racing usually excels at 1.5-mile tracks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule, and Homestead-Miami Speedway is no exception.

In fact, Roush Fenway drivers have won five of the six previous series events there.

Sunday’s race will be a lot closer than some will think possible.

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