Backstretch Motorsports

The stage is set, the actors are as ready as they are going to be. It is showtime.

Making the big show is goal. All these drivers think they are going to be in - but somethings gotta give, not everybody can make it.

When the “Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup” format was instituted in 2004, Richmond International Raceway inherited the annual Chase “cut-off” race, the final event before the Chase field is finalized.

The .750 D-shaped track has been a most splendid host and very providing in the realm the of sometimes lap-by-lap Chase ins and outs.

Vaulting into the Chase field at Richmond isn’t a rare occurrence. It has happened three times, once when the deficit was over 37 points (Busch’s deficit to 12th-place Matt Kenseth). The largest ever erased was 56 points, by Jeremy Mayfield in the inaugural Chase of 2004. The other two drivers who raced their way in at Richmond: Ryan Newman in 2005 and Kasey Kahne in 2006.

Drama at RIR has been considerable on a yearly basis since then, but clearly, this year shapes up as the most dramatic yet.

Coming into Saturday night’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400, only four spots in the 12-driver field have been clinched. Those guaranteed berths in NASCAR’s “playoffs” have been nailed down by Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot Chevrolet), Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet), Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont/National Guard Wounded Warrior Chevrolet) and Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota).

Consider this: only 217 points separate fifth-place Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford) from the last driver in Chase contention, 15th-place David Reutimann (No. 00 Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota).

When the situation is condensed around the 12th-place bubble, the outlook becomes even more uncertain. The last driver still in mathematical contention is 15th-place Reutimann, an obvious long shot, as he is 132 points behind Kenseth.

We are going to concentrate on the three of those drivers that, arguably, seem to have the best shot at making the Chase field.

Roush Fenway Racing’s Matt Kenseth, Red Bull Racing’s Brian Vickers and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch.

Safety is a relative term this week in terms of qualifying for the Chase. Kenseth’s sanctity of being in 12th is somewhat illusory.

Why?

Well, there’s this: Kenseth has one Richmond victory, that coming in September 2002. Saturday night he’ll be fighting off very capable and very determined that are very guys close behind in the points. Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota) is only 20 points behind, while Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota) is only 37 back.

Un-equivocally, Kyle Busch has the most to gain by making the Chase. By securing the minimum 12th and final spot, he leap-frogs over all the others in the field and goes straight to the Chase top-seed. No. 1 for the first race in the championship run at New Hampshire.

Brain Vickers Red Bull team and the “Astounding Atlanta Axle Application” repair they pulled off shows the pure gut-it-out determination this group has. Add in that Vickers has gained more points in Chase contention potential than any other team in the running last seven weeks.

Vicker’s average finish at RIR is a very glaring 27.5. But if he continues on the points grabbing tear he’s seen in recent weeks - that has shown a remarkable 12-position improvement over his past stats at The Glen, Michigan (winner), Bristol and Atlanta - he’s just about golden.

A top five or top ten is assurance.

Matt Kenseth will be one of two drivers to have made every Chase field since it’s inception and he seems to be - even in his decidely dismal season - capable of getting to exactly where he needs to be at race’s end. This time out, he’ll need to be firmly in the top 8 at the end of the night.

Kenseth’s average finish at Richmond is a very season- reflective 16.5

Kenseth’s avg. 16.5 finish position for the ‘09 NSCS season, taking away the Daytona 500 and California victories as compared to a 15.0 in entire career.

But there’s one key element that can’t be measured by statistics: Kenseth’s perseverance. He holds the 12th position. To wrestle that from his grasp will not be an easy task. The Wisconsin driver has the better of the “clutch” mentality and the killer instinct when cornered.

Still, almost all the numbers point to Kyle Busch, currently 14th in the points, earning a berth in the 2009 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup after Saturday night’s race at Richmond: history is on his side.

Richmond is Busch’s best track. His average finish at Richmond is 6.1 and his average Driver Rating is 112.1, both of which put the short track at the top of his list.

Busch has excelled on bigger tracks, he’s a short-track whiz. In the four short-track races this season, Busch has racked up four wins, a Driver Rating of 120.9, an Average Running Position of 9.3 and 499 laps led.

All of these drivers and their crews know that they can’t control what the ones they are racing against will do.

They can’t control what the track can dish out, getting caught up in someone else’s wreck is a possibilty, getting a flat tire is another. there’s the dreaded engine failue, handling going south - lots of things can happen.

Pressures can cause mistakes - on pit road, behind the wheel.. any mis-cue is a deal-breaker.

But here is where determination and preparation will breed success.

This is it.

Watch the Chase stat tracker lap-by-lap and if one or more of these guys has trouble - and short tracks will bite - watch for Reutimann to go into do-or-die mode.

Stay Tuned.