Backstretch Motorsports

Erase all doubt: To win the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship, the rest of the contenders will have go through Jimmie Johnson

When the NASCAR Banking 500 only from Bank of America is complete, it will mark the halfway point of the 2009 Chase. Through the first four races of the Chase, the top three drivers in the point standings – Johnson, Mark Martin (No. 5 Pop-Tarts/CARQUEST Chevrolet) and Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Lysol Chevrolet) have all brought their “A” game.

Heading into Saturday night’s race at Lowe’s Motor Speedway, Johnson has grabbed the points lead with his sights squarely set on claiming his fourth consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup Series title – an unprecedented accomplishment in the sport.

In recent outing at the mile and a half speedhouse that bears Johnson’s sponsor’s name, it has been ‘Jimmie’s house’. The 3-time champ has made 16 Sprint Cup Series starts at Lowe’s Motor Speedway, earning five wins, eight top-five and 12 top-10 finishes.

Johnson has completed 96.6% (5389 of 5580) of competition laps at the track and has led 1242. He has an average start and finish of 8.1 and 9.1.

He is tied with Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet) for most wins among active drivers. One more victory and Johnson would join Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip with six wins there. Johnson’s Driver Rating of 116.6 also leads all drivers at LMS.

“Without a doubt, it really would be nice to win there.” said Johnson of the upcoming race. “It has been a great relationship with the track and Lowe’s and then all the victories we have had there have been really neat.”

However, Johnson has suffered a dry spell of late. After winning four consecutive races there in 2004 and 2005 (a track record), Johnson has gone winless at Lowe’s in the last three-plus seasons.

“The track, I really think since it was resurfaced, it just changed the dynamic of the race for us.” he explains. “I had some lines that worked really well. I think our setup worked really well for the abrasive track. Rough tracks with bumps and things like that seem to work well for me with my background. It just worked. It was one of those tracks that just worked.”

“We work on stuff each time we go back. This year I think we’ll be better yet. The last few times we have been there, we have just been super tight and needed more front grip with the car. I think we are a little smarter even from the All-Star and the Coca Cola 600 weekend, we’re smarter now than we were then and hopefully it makes a difference.”

But to get to Johnson, the others will have to have incredible luck, and Johnson to not have such a good post-season as he usually pulls off.

Statistically, this is the most competitive Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup in its six-year history.

So, the margin of error in this year’s Chase is miniscule. This weekend’s race at Lowe’s Motor Speedway presents a unique challenge for all the Chasers, but especially the top three.

Johnson’s Average Finish over the first four races is 3.8. What is even more astonishing is that Martin and Montoya’s Average Finishes are even better than that – both at 3.5 – yet Martin trails Johnson by 12 points and Montoya is 58 points back. Montoya is the only driver to record a top-five finish in each of the four Chase races.

Martin is statistically strong at LMS as well, despite his last win coming in 2002. Since 2005, Martin has a Driver Rating of 91.7 (fifth-best) and an Average Running Position of 12.1 (fifth).

Montoya’s run could be the most interesting of the bunch. His LMS Driver Rating of 58.0 makes it his second-worst track in the series (Darlington is his worst in terms of Driver Rating, at 51.0). But, this is a career year for Montoya. Overall, he does have a 58.0 Driver Rating and an Average Running Position of 25.8. But in his eighth-place finish at Lowe’s in May, he had a Driver Rating of 106.2 and an Average Running Position of 6.9.

Lowe’s Motor Speedway, with its close proximity to many of NASCAR’s race shops, provides a “Homecoming Week” to the drivers and teams in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. The track is celebrating its 50th season of NASCAR racing, and for the teams, protecting their “home turf” has never been more important.

Of the 12 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers, only five have won series points races at Lowe’s. Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon lead the way with five wins each. Mark Martin is next with four victories, followed by Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge) with three. Tony Stewart has won once at Lowe’s.

That means that seven Chase drivers will be gunning for their first win at Lowe’s this Saturday night. That in itself should make the competition and intrigue even more compelling.

The remainder of Saturday’s field has had solid success at Lowe’s. Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet) is the defending race winner and a three-time victor there. Former series champion Bill Elliott (No. 21 Warriors in Pink Powered by Ford Ford) is entered in this week’s event and has won twice at Lowe’s, as has 2000 series champion Bobby Labonte (No. 96 ASK.com/Search for the Cure Ford Fusion). Terry Labonte (No. 08 EM Motorsports Toyota), another former series champion, has one victory at LMS, and is likewise entered this week. Other former winners at Lowe’s include 2003 series champion Matt Kenseth (No. 17 CARHARTT Ford); Jamie McMurray (No. 26 Jeremiah Weed Ford); and Casey Mears (No. 07 Jack Daniel’s Chevrolet) – all with one win each.

Martin has often said that Lowe’s is one of his favorite race tracks. Saturday marks Martin’s 50th points race at LMS. His 17 top-five and 22 top-10 finishes tops all active drivers there.

Charlotte’s pivitol role in Chase history is evident. The night-time event presents a host of challenges, hazards and advantages for for the top three in points.

Given what each is capable of, the halfway mark can certainly provide even more seperation from the rest of the field, but maybe not from each other.

Stay tuned.