Backstretch Motorsports

The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup standings started with drivers bunched closely together points-wise. Three races into the Chase, some are thinking it’s just not going to happen for the ones that seemed so strong coming in.

Going into Sunday’s Pepsi 500 at Auto Club Speedway, the man everyone is trying to catch continues to be Mark Martin (No. 5 CARQUEST/Kellogg’s Chevrolet), as he is 18 points ahead of second-place, Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet), the three-time defending series champion. Martin has posted a series-leading and career-high seven poles plus five victories.

But don’t be fooled, the rest of the top 12 are not letting Martin just walk away with the title.

A total of 190 points separate first place to 11th in the Chase standings, and only 99 points separate first to sixth – the closest points margin after the first three races of the Chase since the format’s inception in 2004.

And to boot, three different Chase contenders have won the first three races of the Chase – (Martin, New Hampshire; Johnson, Dover; and Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot Chevrolet), Kansas).

“It just shows that you’re going to have to be on for 10 weeks to win this thing, and if you have a bad day, there’s going to be guys that are going to capitalize on it,” said Stewart.

This weekend, Auto Club Speedway welcomes its inaugural Chase race, and returning race winner Johnson could benefit. Johnson is tied with Gordon and Matt Kenseth (No. 17 R&L Carriers Ford) for a series-high three wins at ACS.

One of the best teams on the ladder coming into the Chase, the No 83 Red Bull Racing Toyota team of Brian Vickers is being forced to swallow and stomach what was most likely their worst performance of the season — a 37th-place Kansas finish being the end result of an ill-handling car, a lonesome spin through the grass and an engine that quit far too early.

Vickers reeled off nine consecutive finishes of 12th or better to make the Chase, but it’s since been a struggle. Finishes of 11th, 18th and 37th dropped driver No. 83 from eighth to 12th in the standings. He’s 250 points behind championship leader Mark Martin.

“We were one of the best teams leading up to the Chase. Now we’re struggling in the Chase,” Vickers said. “It’s frustrating. You beat your head against the wall and try to figure out what it is. Maybe we blew on the dice one too many times going into the Chase and we’re out of luck now. Whatever it is, it’s behind us.”

So, in the worlds of “what ifs”, pure mathematical reasoning and ‘bad luck’ scenarios for the leaders that are highly unlikely, even with Talladega looming, gut instinct tells you this isn’t Vickers’ trophy year.

Not to discount that the No. 83 team has had a stellar season. Most drivers in the sport would be in the clouds with the numbers Vickers put up.

The other end of the spectrum has Denny Hamlim still making noise and following the gameplan with what seems to be a common theme over the last three weeks: wishing he could have a Dover do-over.

Coming off a disappointing 22nd-place finish at “The Monster Mile” in the second race of the 2009 Chase for the Sprint Cup, Denny Hamlin and the #11 FedEx Racing team were focused on getting back to the performance levels that saw them enter the ten-race playoff with as much momentum as any team in the series.

The Virginia lad started his 2009 Chase bid with a second place with laps lead finish at Loudon

Kansas Speedway offered them that opportunity and they took full advantage as Hamlin charged forward early in the race and never looked back on his way to driving the No. 11 FedEx Freight Camry to a career-best fifth-place finish at the 1.5-mile track.

As the laps counted down, Hamlin look poised to challenge for the win but a late caution gave all of the teams the chance to pit – undoing the #11 team’s fuel advantage – and Hamlin couldn’t chase down the leaders before the end. The result marked Hamlin’s 11th top-five finish of the season and keeps the FedEx team alive in the Chase. He sits 99 points behind leader Mark Martin and only eight points behind Kurt Busch in fifth.

His racing history at ACS isn’t marked absolute performance.

This weekend will mark Hamlin’s eighth career Cup start at the two-mile track in Fontana and his 145th career Cup Series start. Earlier this season, Hamlin’s late surge into the top-ten and subsequent sixth-place finish had the team moving up the points list into 15th-place heading to Las Vegas.

Hamlin fought an ill-handling car for much of the race but persevered as the FedEx crew worked through myriad changes on pit road. Great pit stops on laps 169 and 209 earned Hamlin places on pit road that set him up in fourth for the final restart on lap 215.

As the laps counted down Hamlin could do little to hold the fourth spot and ultimately slipped back to sixth at the checkered flag. A year ago Hamlin and the #11 FedEx Racing team registered a best- ever third-place finish at Auto Club to propel them into the 2008 Chase. In the spring of 2008 Hamlin was forced from the rain delayed Monday-afternoon race early when he hit water seeping through the track on lap 15 of the event and was sent sailing into the turn two wall.

Despite making considerable repairs, the damage was done and Hamlin was scored in 41st place.

In the fall 2007 race a cut tire under caution late in the race spoiled what was otherwise a promising day for the FedEx team and led to a 19th-place finish. In the spring of 2006, Hamlin had a very competitive car and ran as high as third place before handling issues caused him to fade late in the race and take the checkered in 11th. During his rookie campaign, Hamlin posted finishes of sixth and 12th and led 29 laps in the fall edition – the only laps he has led at Auto Club Speedway to date.

The career year, as far as NASCAR is concerned, continues for Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet).

Last Sunday at Kansas, Montoya scored a fourth-place finish, his career-best at the 1.5-mile track. That made Kansas the 14th track at which Montoya has posted a career-best finish in 2009.

In other words, past statistics for this weekend’s race at Auto Club Speedway might not be the best analysis tool. Prior to this season, Montoya struggled at the track.

In February, Montoya finished 11th, his best career Auto Club finish in five races. Prior to that, he averaged a 24.8.

His overall Auto Club numbers aren’t less than impressive: Driver Rating of 68.4 (23rd-best), Average Running Position of 20.1 (21st), one Fastest Lap Run and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 41.4%.

But his February run might be more indicative of how he’ll run this Sunday in the Pepsi 500. That race, Montoya had a Driver Rating of 90.5, an Average Running Position of 10.8 and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 98.4%.

Montoya, third in points, owns some of the top statistics over the first three races, suggesting that his 51-point deficit to leader Mark Martin might vanish sooner than later. Over the first three races, Montoya is the only driver to notch three top fives. Over that span, he has an average finish of 3.7 (second-best), a Driver Rating of 122.2 (second), an Average Running Position of 4.6 (second) and a series-best Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 99.4%.

Another name on the other side of the “career year” coin is Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford). Edwards, though enjoying a solid season, has fallen far off from winning a series-high nine races in 2008.

Edwards is still looking for his first victory, but Auto Club Speedway seems like the perfect spot. For one, his Roush Fenway Racing team has won at least one race in Fontana in each of the last five seasons (the outfit prolonged the streak earlier this season with Matt Kenseth’s victory).

Secondly, Edwards is strong there. In his 10 career races at Auto Club Speedway, Edwards has finished in the top 10 nine times. Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Edwards has outstanding statistics: a Driver Rating of 105.0, an Average Running Position of 10.8, 139 Fastest Laps Run and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 79.1%.

Edwards won there in last season’s spring race, notching a Driver Rating of 135.4, his best at Auto Club Speedway.

The key scenario of possible points to be gained in still very much in the 2009 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup focus.

There is still a lot of racing to be done.

Seasons are made and broken quickly and time is running out for the championship would-be’s.

California has a distinct providence this weekend. The would-be role of eliminator.

Stay Tuned.