Still the Scottish Racer - 10 and Done.. for some
By Bram • Jun 23rd, 2009 • Category: From The Backstretch, Notes, Racer, Sprint Cup Series
Kasey Kahne proved one thing on Sunday at Sonoma.. it ain’t over till it’s over, and the fight goes on to fall of the checkers.
But the season takes a definite turn in pressures come this Sunday. The one-mile flat oval of New Hampshire Motor Speedway takes center stage.
It marks the start of the summer stretch of ten races leading to the absolute 10-race Chase for NASCAR’s top prize, the Sprint Cup.
NHMS is in the enviable position of setting the Chase pace in two unique ways. Fronting the 10 before and fronting the Chase itself.
As the points currently stand, four drivers inside the top 12 are within 50 points of being bounced out of the top 12: Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin and Juan Pablo Montoya. And three drivers outside the top 12 are 50 points from vaulting into the top 12: Kasey Kahne, David Reutimann and Jeff Burton.
1 Tony Stewart 2364
2 Jeff Gordon 2280
3 Jimmie Johnson 2207
4 Kurt Busch 2084
5 Carl Edwards 2051
6 Ryan Newman 2046
7 Denny Hamlin 2009
8 Greg Biffle 1992
9 Kyle Busch 1962
10 Matt Kenseth 1957
11 Mark Martin 1926
12 Juan Montoya 1917
And those that are on the outside:
13 Kasey Kahne 1914
14 David Reutimann 1877
15 Jeff Burton 1871
16 Clint Bowyer 1852
17 Brian Vickers 1794
18 Marcos Ambrose 1704
19 Jamie McMurray 1669
20 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1640
In a matter of simple mathematics, a strong summer stretch could close the gap to ninth place to fifteenth, all vying for the top 12 Chase positions, where Kyle Busch and Mark Martin, both with top season wins at 3 each, but both are close to the bubble. Factor in Matt Kenseth, with the strong season start, but not much else to boast about. Kenseth has 5 Top 10’s at Loudon, Martin has a virtual basket full top tens and fives, Juan Pablo has an average finish of 22nd at the flat-track.
The statistics suggest Busch is the safest of those inside the top 12. He has a 48-point cushion to the Chase cutoff, and has the fifth-best average Driver Rating at the next 10 tracks (96.9).
Of those on the outside looking in, Burton seems most likely to make the comeback. At the next 10 tracks, he has a Driver Rating of 86.4 and Average Running Position of 15.2. His NHMS stats: average finish of 12.8 with four wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s.
Roush Fenway Racing has won seven races at NHMS, more than any other organization, however Biffle has the only victory in the current stable of drivers.
The 12 drivers who do make the Chase will have their points reset to 5,000 – with 10 bonus points added to that total for each win prior to the Chase.
Only 100 points remain, meaning those comfortably inside the top 12 are aiming at one target – Victory Lane.
As I’ve said often in the past, stay tuned, the proverbial barns are about to be set alight.
